Energy Security under Sustainable Energy Transitions

Energy Security, or the provision of reliable energy services at affordable prices, is a key driver of energy policies. Therefore, policy arguments in favor of sustainable energy transitions need to refer to energy security. In spite of the importance of energy security as a policy driver, there has been little systematic analysis of the energy security implications of future energy scenarios. This dissertation aims to conduct such an analysis. It presents a framework for assessing future energy security evaluation which focuses on vulnerabilities of energy fuels, carriers, end-use sectors, and regions using a series of quantitative indicators. The framework is applied to the Global Energy Assessment “energy transition pathways” which is a set of over 50 scenarios, the majority of which are carbon neutral and provide universal access, with different end-use and supply-side technological assumptions and limitations. Energy security concerns associated with specific pathways are identified and policy recommendations to minimize such concerns while still achieving sustainability goals are presented.