Capacities and Driving Forces for Nuclear Power in Newcomer Countries
Level:
Master's CEU Thesis author:
Jessica Jewell Thesis author:
Jessica Jewell Thesis topic:
nuclear energy Academic Area(s):
Environmental and Energy Studies Status:
Completed Year of enrollment:
2007/2008 Duration of thesis project:
Feb, 2009 - Jun, 2009 Thesis supervisor:
Aleh Cherp Affiliations:
Thesis abstract:
Growing concerns over energy security and climate change have lead to an increase in the interest in nuclear power development. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that there are 48 countries interested in building their first nuclear power plant. These countries span virtually every continent and vary greatly in economic and social development ranging from the high-income Gulf States to low-income Sub-Saharan African countries. The growing interest in nuclear power in these countries raises the question of which countries actually have the capacity to develop a nuclear power program. Currently there is no existing framework to characterize the capacity for nuclear power development in these Newcomer States.
This study aims to bridge that gap in order to characterize and evaluate Newcomer Countries in terms of their capacity to develop nuclear power, as well as the national imperatives to do so. In order to evaluate the driving forces and barriers to implementing nuclear energy in Newcomer Countries, the study examines both contemporary and historical data. Contemporary sources include IAEA guidelines for nuclear power development as well as economic and institutional data from Existing Nuclear states; historical data include political and economic records for Existing Nuclear States at the time of construction of their first nuclear power plant and are used to benchmark the Newcomer Countries to states that already have implemented this energy source.
The study finds that in the past, electricity consumption growth and nuclear weapons considerations drove states to seek nuclear energy. Today, the driving forces also include energy security and climate change. Based on the analysis, only 11 Newcomer Countries with high capacity and moderate to high imperatives are highly likely to implement nuclear energy. In 12 states nuclear energy implementation is possible; these states are small economies with well-connected grids and have low to medium imperatives for nuclear energy. Due to the historical correlation between political instability and nuclear weapons development; nuclear power development is risky in 10 states based on their political instability. There are 15 states where nuclear energy implementation is unlikely due to insufficient capacity and low imperatives.
Full description:
Growing concerns over energy security and climate change have lead to an increase in the interest in nuclear power development. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that there are 48 countries interested in building their first nuclear power plant. These countries span virtually every continent and vary greatly in economic and social development ranging from the high-income Gulf States to low-income Sub-Saharan African countries. The growing interest in nuclear power in these countries raises the question of which countries actually have the capacity to develop a nuclear power program. Currently there is no existing framework to characterize the capacity for nuclear power development in these Newcomer States.
This study aims to bridge that gap in order to characterize and evaluate Newcomer Countries in terms of their capacity to develop nuclear power, as well as the national imperatives to do so. In order to evaluate the driving forces and barriers to implementing nuclear energy in Newcomer Countries, the study examines both contemporary and historical data. Contemporary sources include IAEA guidelines for nuclear power development as well as economic and institutional data from Existing Nuclear states; historical data include political and economic records for Existing Nuclear States at the time of construction of their first nuclear power plant and are used to benchmark the Newcomer Countries to states that already have implemented this energy source.
The study finds that in the past, electricity consumption growth and nuclear weapons considerations drove states to seek nuclear energy. Today, the driving forces also include energy security and climate change. Based on the analysis, only 11 Newcomer Countries with high capacity and moderate to high imperatives are highly likely to implement nuclear energy. In 12 states nuclear energy implementation is possible; these states are small economies with well-connected grids and have low to medium imperatives for nuclear energy. Due to the historical correlation between political instability and nuclear weapons development; nuclear power development is risky in 10 states based on their political instability. There are 15 states where nuclear energy implementation is unlikely due to insufficient capacity and low imperatives.
See also:
Global Energy Assessment