Publications of Goldthau, A.

A Public Policy Perspective on Global Energy Security

Despite an emerging literature on global energy governance, there so far is no extensive intellectual rationale for it. This article seeks to fill this gap by putting forward a public policy framework to analyze global energy. With that lens, energy security relates to problems of market failure at a transnational scale. These may occur due to imperfect competition; negative externalities; lack of information; or the presence of public goods. It is argued that major global energy risks such as oil price volatility, lack of transport infrastructure, and insufficient upstream investments can be convincingly conceptionalized as markets failing to provide for a crucial good—energy security. This article thus proposes market failure as an analytical justification of and as an intellectual foundation for further research in global energy governance, and sketches possible research agendas in that field.

Global Energy Governance : The New Rules of the Game

The global market for oil and gas resources is rapidly changing. Three major trends – the rise of new consumers, the increasing influence of state players, and concerns about climate change – are combining to challenge existing regulatory structures, many of which have been in place for a half-century. "Global Energy Governance" analyzes the energy market from an institutionalist perspective and offers practical policy recommendations to deal with these new challenges. Much of the existing discourse on energy governance deals with hard security issues but neglects the challenges to global governance. "Global Energy Governance" fills this gap with perspectives on how regulatory institutions can ensure reliable sources of energy, evaluate financial risk, and provide emergency response mechanisms to deal with interruptions in supply. The authors bring together decisionmakers from industry, government, and civil society in order to address two central questions: What are the current practices of existing institutions governing global oil and gas on financial markets? How do these institutions need to adapt in order to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century? The resulting governance-oriented analysis of the three interlocking trends also provides the basis for policy recommendations to improve global regulation.

Imported Oil and U.S. Security

In 2007, on a net basis, the United States imported 58 percent of the oil it consumed. This book critically evaluates commonly suggested links between these oil imports and U.S. national security. The major risk to the United States posed by reliance on oil is the economic costs of a major disruption in global oil supplies. On the other hand, the study found no evidence that oil exporters have been able to use embargoes or threats of embargoes to achieve key political and foreign policy goals. Oil revenues are irrelevant for terrorist groups' ability to launch attacks. The study also assesses the economic, political, and military costs and benefits of potential policies to alleviate challenges to U.S. national security linked to imported oil.

Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran : Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning

The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict against a powerful, well-armed opponent versus the so-called Long War against rogue nations and terrorist organizations. The answer depends to a large extent on the evolution of U.S. relations with China and Iran and the future of the United States itself. To help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy's allocation of resources in particular, RAND examined emerging nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries. The authors investigated current and projected domestic developments in the areas of demographics, economics, energy consumption, the environment, and education. They also examined each country's relations with its so-called near abroad to determine how much of a challenge each of the three nations (plus Japan and Russia) will experience in their own immediate “neighborhoods.”The authors conclude that the Navy will have to balance its investment decisions around the following major findings: * There will be less tolerance for costly, “big-ticket” defense projects in the United States; the Navy's “blue-green” mix will be affected. * China will remain the Navy's greatest potential challenge, but Iran will continue to defy the United States in the Middle East. * Further cooperation with key allies in the Pacific and the Greater Middle East will be required, as will an enduring defense commitment in the Middle East.