Publications of Goldthau, A.
A Public Policy Perspective on Global Energy Security
Despite an emerging literature on global energy governance, there so far is no extensive intellectual rationale for it. This article seeks to fill this gap by putting forward a public policy framework to analyze global energy. With that lens, energy security relates to problems of market failure at a transnational scale. These may occur due to imperfect competition; negative externalities; lack of information; or the presence of public goods. It is argued that major global energy risks such as oil price volatility, lack of transport infrastructure, and insufficient upstream investments can be convincingly conceptionalized as markets failing to provide for a crucial good—energy security. This article thus proposes market failure as an analytical justification of and as an intellectual foundation for further research in global energy governance, and sketches possible research agendas in that field.
Assessing OPEC’s Performance in Global Energy
This article examines OPEC’s performance in regulating output and prices in the global oil market during its 50 years of existence. In addition, it discusses key trends that are likely to determine OPEC’s effectiveness in the years ahead, particularly climate change policies. We find that OPEC’s ability to control the oil market singlehandedly has historically been limited, as a result of both internal collective action problems and external factors such as the rise of new producers. Furthermore, we find that climate change policies may negatively impact long-term planning security for investment and hence OPEC’s ability to target price bands and smooth the oil market. We argue that OPEC will need to become more proactive in low-carbon policies to remain part of the decision making on future energy demand patterns that affects its main export product. We also submit that OPEC has a great role to play in fighting price volatility, a key concern for both producers and consumers, and that the best platform for enhanced efforts in this regard would probably be the International Energy Forum.
Global Energy Governance : The New Rules of the Game
The global market for oil and gas resources is rapidly changing. Three major trends – the rise of new consumers, the increasing influence of state players, and concerns about climate change – are combining to challenge existing regulatory structures, many of which have been in place for a half-century. "Global Energy Governance" analyzes the energy market from an institutionalist perspective and offers practical policy recommendations to deal with these new challenges. Much of the existing discourse on energy governance deals with hard security issues but neglects the challenges to global governance. "Global Energy Governance" fills this gap with perspectives on how regulatory institutions can ensure reliable sources of energy, evaluate financial risk, and provide emergency response mechanisms to deal with interruptions in supply. The authors bring together decisionmakers from industry, government, and civil society in order to address two central questions: What are the current practices of existing institutions governing global oil and gas on financial markets? How do these institutions need to adapt in order to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century? The resulting governance-oriented analysis of the three interlocking trends also provides the basis for policy recommendations to improve global regulation.
Imported Oil and U.S. Security
In 2007, on a net basis, the United States imported 58 percent of the oil it consumed. This book critically evaluates commonly suggested links between these oil imports and U.S. national security. The major risk to the United States posed by reliance on oil is the economic costs of a major disruption in global oil supplies. On the other hand, the study found no evidence that oil exporters have been able to use embargoes or threats of embargoes to achieve key political and foreign policy goals. Oil revenues are irrelevant for terrorist groups' ability to launch attacks. The study also assesses the economic, political, and military costs and benefits of potential policies to alleviate challenges to U.S. national security linked to imported oil.
Back to the future or forward to the past? : strengthening markets and rules for effective global energy governance
Current public policy debates on energy security are characterized by a singular focus on questions regarding access to resources. This lopsided attention to the geopolitical dimension of energy security is based on the myopic and erroneous presumption that global energy politics is necessarily a zero-sum game in which one country's energy security is another's lack thereof.In fact, debates deflect attention from the real issues that policy-makers should consider in their attempts to foster effective global energy governance-the central role increasingly international energy markets play in balancing demand and supply-and, even more importantly, the significance of the 'rules of the game' that structure these markets.This article makes a first attempt to apply a broader analytical lens by pointing out and analyzing the important role rules play in determining outcomes in international oil and gas markets; by examining how current trends are affecting the existing 'rules of the game'; and by highlighting consequences for public policy.
Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran : Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning
The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict against a powerful, well-armed opponent versus the so-called Long War against rogue nations and terrorist organizations. The answer depends to a large extent on the evolution of U.S. relations with China and Iran and the future of the United States itself. To help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy's allocation of resources in particular, RAND examined emerging nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries. The authors investigated current and projected domestic developments in the areas of demographics, economics, energy consumption, the environment, and education. They also examined each country's relations with its so-called near abroad to determine how much of a challenge each of the three nations (plus Japan and Russia) will experience in their own immediate “neighborhoods.”The authors conclude that the Navy will have to balance its investment decisions around the following major findings: * There will be less tolerance for costly, “big-ticket” defense projects in the United States; the Navy's “blue-green” mix will be affected. * China will remain the Navy's greatest potential challenge, but Iran will continue to defy the United States in the Middle East. * Further cooperation with key allies in the Pacific and the Greater Middle East will be required, as will an enduring defense commitment in the Middle East.
Energy efficiency in Russia
Russia has enormous potential to increase its energy effi ciency. It suff ers from the lack of modern heating systemsin housing, outdated infrastructure and equipment in energy intensive industrial sectors, natural gasleaks from pipelines during transmission and distribution, and oil companies fl aring associated gas at theirwells. To address these problems, Russia should provide incentives to reduce fl aring, increase domestic pricesfor gas, breakup the Gazprom monopoly on the pipeline system, and improve the legal framework for internationalcooperation. Th e EU has only indirect levers on Russian domestic policy, so it should work to convinceRussia that reducing domestic demand serves both Russian and European interests, help Russia cashin on its effi ciency potential, and sponsor small-scale energy effi ciency projects that could encourage additionaleff orts at the grassroots level.
Resurgent Russia? Rethinking Energy Inc.
By examining the five greatest "myths" on Russian energy, this article challenges some of the key assumptions underlying Western policy towards Russia. It reveals the limits of the prevalent argumentative lines on Russian energy, and offers an alternative explanation for some recent Russian policy choices. Finally, it draws some conclusions on foreign policy implications for the U.S. and the Western world.